THE PACKMAN

Resin market price surge – overview and analysis

Abhinav Chattaraj

TABLE OF CONTENTS

  1. INTRODUCTION
    1. 1 NATURAL RESINS
    1. 2 SYNTHETIC RESINS
      • THERMOPLASTIC RESINS
      • THERMOSETTING RESINS
  2. HISTORY AND ORIGIN OF RESIN
  3. PETROLEUM RESINS
  4. RESIN MARKET; MANUFACTURERS
  5. RESIN PRICES; TURBULENCE AND INFLATION
    • 5.1 RESIN SHORTAGE
    • 5.2 PRICE LISTS
      • 5.2.1 DEC 2018
      • 5.2.2 NOV 2019
      • 5.2.3 JULY 2020
      • 5.2.4 SEPT 2020
      • 5.2.5 FEB 2021
      • 5.2.6 JULY 2021
  6. CONCLUSION
    • 6.1 PRODUCT INSIGHT
    • 6.2 APPLICATION INSIGHTS
    • 6.3 REGIONAL INSIGHTS
    • 6.4 CURRENT POSITION OF MARKET
  1. INTRODUCTION

Why Resins are an important part of our daily life?

  There are two types of resins: Natural resins and Synthetic resins.

  1. NATURAL RESINS

Natural Resins fall under one of the following categories:

  1. Rosins – Resins derived from the pitch of pine trees. Rosins are used in wood varnishes, paints, adhesives and various other compounds.
  2. Oleoresins – Natural resins containing essential oils of plants.
  3. Gum Resins – Natural Mixtures of true gum and resins including natural rubber, gutta percha, gamboge, myrrh and olibanum
  4. Fossil Resins – Resins extracted from ancient trees that have been chemically altered by long exposure.

Other characteristics of Natural Resins include that they are fusible and flammable in nature, yellowish to brown in color and soluble in various organic liquids but not water. Another classification for Natural Resins is into Spirit Soluble or Oil Soluble. Spirit soluble resins include the infamous healing agent; Balsams, Turpentine used as solvents and mastics, dragon’s blood, dammar, sandarac, and lacs, all used as components of varnishes.

Oil-soluble resins include the above-mentioned Rosins, used in several industries such as soap making, amber, used in making jewelry, oriental lacquer, derived from the Chinese tree, Rhus Vernicifera, and cashew nutshell oil.

In modern industry, Natural Resins have been almost completely replaced by Synthetics Resins.

2. SYNTHETIC RESINS

Synthetic Resins are chemical compounds that are developed to imitate their natural counterpart with help of chemically processed source of Naptha which is residual part of Crude oil. Synthetics resins are manufactured industrially via the process of polymerization involving the formation of chain-linked polymers. This allows for a more stable, homogenous structure as compared to naturally occurring resins.

Synthetic resins applications can be found in a wide range of products such as plastics, varnishes and paints and wood and foam segments of our daily consumptions. Metal substrates are provided with better long-term corrosion protection through synthetic resins because of their increased durability. Synthetic Resins can be classified into two types: Thermoplastic resins and Thermosetting resins.

2A. THERMOPLASTIC RESINS

Thermoplastic resins are low molecular weight synthetic resins that melt into liquid when heated and then harden again when left to cool. Due to this property, thermoplastic resins are usable in several industries. They are mostly used in the injection molding process. There are myriad thermoplastic resins available: polycarbonate, nylon, acrylic, etc. Nylon is used in objects like ropes, machine screws and gearwheels. Acrylic is used in aquariums, windows, signs and medicines. When thermoplastic resins are utilized in the plastic molding process, they form chemical bonds known as polymers. The bonding of the various types of molecules involved in the polymer chains dictates the characteristics the plastic will possess. When the resin is heating, we get a viscous liquid which can then be molded into anything using a molding tool. Thermoplastics are also known to be more recyclable than thermosetting resins. Thermoplastic resins have a low melting point. Hence the melting process is repeatable without any damage to the materials.

The advantages of thermoplastic resins include high recyclability, reshaping abilities, high impact resistance, chemical resistance, large number of finishing options and no toxic fumes or smells produced while manufacturing. However, some disadvantages of thermoplastic resins are that they are highly expensive, they have a low melting point, can fracture under high-stress levels and can be sensitive to organic solvents.

2B. THERMOSETTING RESINS

Thermosetting resins possess a characteristic that when they go through a high molecular cross-linking process, their final form is irreversible and infusible. Hence, this resin offers high thermal stability, rigidity, hardness and resistance to creep. When thermosetting resins are processed into their final form, reprocessing can’t take place except by the method of chemical breakdown, which has not been developed yet.

Thermosetting resins that have little use are pure resins. They require the addition of extra chemicals to be processable. For reinforced plastics, the compounds comprise of a resin system along with fillers and reinforcements. The resin system usually dictates the cost, dimensional stability, heat, chemical resistance and basic flammability. The reinforcement influences these factors but mainly focuses on tensile strength and toughness. Special fillers and additives can affect mechanical properties but are mainly used to confer specific properties, such as flame retardant ultraviolet stability or electrical conductivity.

Thermosetting resins are usually used in a liquid state and harden upon curing. Some frequently used thermosetting resins are polyester, epoxy, phenolic, vinyl ester, polyurethane, silicone and polyamide.

HISTORY AND ORIGIN OF RESIN

Resin has been around for a long time now. It has been widely used in a variety of avenues such as art supplies, wooden coatings, fragrances, soap, etc. The earliest evidence of use of resin has been dated back to ancient Greece. However, chemical resins, specifically Epoxy Resins have entered the world of resins recently. Epoxy Resin’s required chemical reaction was discovered by a chemist in the 1930’s. Paul Schlack patented epoxy resin in 1934. Around the same time, different claims over bisphenol-A-based epoxy resins arose. One of the claimants was Pierre Castan, a Swiss chemist who went on to become a pioneer of epoxy resin along with Paul Shlack.

Castan’s initial reason for creating resins was for dental prosthetics. From there, he also developed a combination of epichlorohydrin and diphenols and promoted them as suitable materials for Varnish and adhesive purposes. Castan’s work with Epoxy was licensed by the Swiss chemical company, Ciba Ltd. Ciba went on to become one of the biggest producers of epoxy resin in the world. In 1946, a chemist named Sylvan Greenlee on behalf of Devoe & Raynolds Company patented a new type of resin that was derived from bisphenol-A and epichlorohydrin.

After being a success in the industrial world, Epoxy went on to become popular in the world of art in the ’40s and ’50s. Artists started mixing epoxy resin with pigment and used it as a painting medium that was meant to be poured in layers. Jewelers and mixed media artists began using the material for securing and preserving natural materials, decoupage, countertop art, and tabletop art. Today, epoxy resin is widely available in hardware stores and art supply stores. Even though its chemical composition has varied much, it is now derived from materials other than coal and tar.

Following are a few tables that represent the types of thermosetting resins that were sold in the United States in 1994 along with their purpose.

It can be clearly seen that the sale of Thermoplastic resins was monumentally greater than that of Thermosetting resins. This can be attributed to the fact that Thermoplastic Resins have greater applicability and are more accessible and easier to use than its Thermosetting counterpart. Since it was 1994, technology was not developed enough to increase the versatility of Thermosetting materials. Sales in Thermoplastic Resins were 86.04% greater than sales in Thermosetting resins.

PETROLEUM RESINS

For this report, we will be primarily focusing on resins derived from petroleum[8]. The resins considered in this report are synthetic hydrocarbon resins made by polymerizing mixtures of unsaturated monomers such as olefins, diolefins and aromatic vinyl compounds. These are obtained as byproducts of natural gas liquids, gas oil or petroleum naphtha. These resins are low in molecular weight and range from liquids to delicate solids in physicality. Some of the most recurring plastics like polyethylene, polypropylene, polystyrene, etc. are also derived from petroleum.

Therefore, it would not be wrong to say that the resin industry relies majorly on the petroleum industry. Any impact on the petroleum industry will be reflected in the resin industry as well. This will be discussed and observed in depth further in the report.

THE RESIN MARKET & MANUFACTURERS

The resin market is an enormous world with producers catering to a multitude of consumers. Almost every item in our daily usage has some amount of resin in it. Let’s look at some of the Resin Giants[10]

1. Dow Chemical[9]

An American multinational chemical company, Dow is headquartered in Midland, Michigan. It provides chemicals, plastic and agricultural products and operates in almost 35 countries. With 179 manufacturing plants all around the globe, Dow has more than 6000 product lines. Dow is the leading global supplier of every major polyethylene (PE) resin worldwide (as of 2016) and the largest global producer of chlorine and poly alkaline glycols. Dow’s primary business avenues include agricultural sciences, consumer solutions, infrastructure solutions, performance materials and chemicals and performance plastics. Currently, almost 49,500 people are employed in Dow.

GLOBAL SALES: $49 Billion

2. Lyondell Basell

One of the world’s largest plastic, chemicals and refining companies, Lyondell Basell is an MNC from Netherlands with US operations headquartered in Houston, Texas and global operations in London, UK. The company was incorporated in December 2007 by the acquisition of Lyondell Chemical Company by Basell Polyolefins for $12.7 billion. It produces chemicals, plastics, petrochemical products, diesel and gasoline among a huge array of products that are manufactured in 17 countries at 55 sites. Lyondell Basell is the world’s largest producer of polypropylene resins and polypropylene compounds and one of the leading producers of polyethylene. The company has a workforce of approximately 19,400.

GLOBAL SALES: $34.7 Billion

3. Exxon Mobil

Exxon Mobil Corp. is an American Multinational oil, gas and chemical company headquartered in Irving Texas. It is a direct descendant of John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil Company and was formed in 1999 by the merger of Exxon and Mobil. It is the world’s 9th largest public company by revenue and ranked number 6 in sales and 17 in profit globally by Forbes, 2016. The company produces plastics, petrochemicals, diesel and gasoline among many other products in almost every major country. It also explores oil and natural gas in six continents. Exxon Mobil is one of the biggest producers of polyolefins and other resins. Their workforce includes approximately 75,600 people.

GLOBAL SALES: $290 billion

4. SABIC

Saudi Arabia Basic Industries Corporation, also known as SABIC is a public petrochemical company founded in 1976. It is headquartered in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. AN active player in the markets for chemicals and intermediates, industrial polymers, fertilizers and metals. The company is the 3rd largest producer of polyethylene and the 4th largest producer of polypropylene and polyolefins. The country has global operations in over 40 countries along with 60 manufacturing sites. There are almost 40,000 people employed in SABIC.

GLOBAL SALES: $35 billion

5. INEOS

INEOS is short for Inspect Ethylene Oxide Specialties. This multinational company is headquartered in Rolle, Switzerland. Producers of plastics, resins and intermediates for all major markets including packaging, pharmaceuticals, agrochemicals, textiles, consumer goods, building and construction, automotive and transportation, the company operates in 24 countries and has 171 sites across the globe. Their workforce is estimated at approximately 19,000.

GLOBAL SALES: $60 billion

These are the top 5 producers of resin and petrochemicals globally. Together they account for a significant portion of the resin market.

RESIN PRICES – TURBULENCE AND INFLATION

Before 2021, if there was one word to describe the resin market globally, it would be “Stable”. The resin market was known to have stable and low pricing, making it highly affordable and easy to deal with. However, ever since the COVID-19 Pandemic, a series of external factors kept hitting the industry causing major turbulence and inflation in Resin globally over the past 2-3 years.

Before we explore the reasons as to why this disturbance took place in such a stable market, let’s take a dive into an essential part of the resin market, Petroleum. As mentioned earlier, a huge amount of resin is a byproduct of Petroleum. Some of the most important resins like polyethylene, polypropylene, polystyrene are derived from petroleum. Now, if the price for petroleum increases, resin producers would have to pay a larger amount to extract the crude oil. This would lead to an increase in their cost. In order to recover from the extra cost paid by the resin producers, they would increase the price of resin. This phenomenon, which we all refer to as inflation comes from a basic economic concept known as ‘’Complementary Goods’’.

Complementary Goods are goods whose prices are directly proportional to each other. If the price of one good increases, it leads to an increase in the price of the other one as well. Let us take a small example: Milk and Tea. If the price of milk increases all over the market, it will become more expensive to make tea. Therefore, that would lead to a higher price of tea. Similarly, Petroleum and Resin are complementary goods.

Let us assume the initial price of petroleum to be X and the initial price of resin to be Y.

Due to assumed circumstances, the price of petroleum inflates by 10%.

Therefore, the new price of petroleum is;

X + (10% of X)

X +( 0.1 of X)

X + 0.X

X.X

Now, the resin producers would have to purchase the petroleum at the new price of X.X per unit, adding X.X per unit to their cost of production. This would lead them into increasing the price of resin as well in order to cover the extra cost. Hence the amount that was Y would now be Y+A where A is the amount added to cover the extra costs.

Lately, the petroleum market in the USA has been turbulent. After a series of storms hit the southern states, where a significant number of petroleum companies are situated, several of these companies faced losses as they were compelled to shut down facilities and production. As of September 14th, 2021, 39%[11] of the US Gulf of Mexico’s production of crude oil and natural gas remained shut according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE).

The storm problem has been persistent in the petroleum industry in the USA for several weeks now causing major inflation in the resin market.

RESIN SHORTAGE 2021

The resin inflation is a result of the resin shortages which took place recently. This is a known economic concept that shortage leads to inflation. Let us explore some reasons[12] which contribute to the ongoing resin shortage.

1. FREAK STORMS AND PLASTIC PLANT SHUTDOWN

Big polymer producers in the gulf coast like Chevron Phillips Chemical in Texas and Lyondell Basell in Louisiana were hit by the notorious Hurricane Laura in the summer of 2020. They were compelled into enforcing Force Majeure, a clause in large organizations which permits deals and operations to cease during extraordinary and unforeseen circumstances. A large number of petrochemical factories were shut down during Hurricane Laura. 15% of American PE and PP production was suspended. This led to a scarce inventory with respect to polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) supplies. It was estimated that it would take approximately 6 months to recover from the losses and imbalances caused by the storm. The same was estimated for resuming normal operations.

2. BLOCKING OF THE SUEZ CANAL

Among the various industries, the plastics supply chain was obstructed by the grounding of a container ship in the Suez Canal on 23 March 2021. The Suez Canal is an essential route for several industries. This blockage logistically affected the global plastic industry’s supply chain. The 1400 foot long Ever Given, a cargo ship that carries goods between Asia and Europe, went aground and jammed the single-lane stretch of the canal on 23 March

The blockage was estimated to have caused a delay worth almost $400 million an hour in goods[19]. The canal’s westbound traffic was estimated at $5.1 billion a day and eastbound traffic was estimated at $4.5 billion a day.

As a result of delays in shipping, the resin market faced a shortage of goods.

3. STRAINED RELATIONS IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE

The price rises from these shortages were worsened by the prevailing international trade conditions. There was a recent spike in shipping costs from Asia which led to damaged import arbitrage opportunities, consequentially reducing plastic material entering the USA. Resin exports to Latin America added an obstacle to the already limited US inventory. This further increased plastic prices. The global plastic supply chain was also adversely affected by the Brexit custom shifts. There was a slowdown in the trade between the United Kingdom and European Union due to port congestion resulting from strict Brexit reacted customs checks and paperwork. These bureaucratic slowdowns led to significant delays in polyethylene, polypropylene and polystyrene exports to the US.

4. LABOR SHORTAGES DUE TO COVID-19

Covid-19 related labor shortages contribute to the slowdown in plastic production and distribution. Quarantine lockdowns deprived factories of the abilities to maintain inventory levels during the summer of 2020. Covid-19 precautions such as sanitary measures, worker reductions reduced production capacity significantly. This led to a shortage of PE and PP inventories. Labor and trucking shortages at ports caused by pandemic safety precautions started a recurring effect of slowdown for resin producers. Widespread production delays and sharp price increases were a result of these resin and plastic inventory constraints.

5. DEMAND FOR PLASTIC PACKAGING UP

A huge increase in demand for plastics was a contribution to ‘perfect storm’ conditions in the 2021 resin plastics industry. Quarter 1 of 2021 witnessed a further jump in demand for plastic packaging, despite already high levels throughout the pandemic. The healthcare industry in particular added to the need of plastic materials for personal protective equipment (PPE).

Of course, it’s not solely the consumers who demand plastic packaging. They are demanding and choosing online shopping options increasingly, a well-established trend that took a major leap forward during the pandemic. Guess what contains your e-commerce purchase? A little bit of plastic packaging. There was produce of $10.26 billion in e-commerce plastic packaging in 2020. The numbers have been predicted to double in 2021.

6. SHIPPING DELAYS AND FREIGHT COSTS

Lately, there has been a major delay in international shipping from various countries to USA. This has created some unanticipated pressure on the resin market. This delay has also led to a scarcity of goods in resin inventory. Adding to this is exorbitant freight charges. There is an inflation freight charge is due to the lack of shipping containers making it tougher for shipping companies to transport goods. Till the time the shipping industry doesn’t make up for the lack of containers, the freight charges will remain high and shipping will be delayed worldwide.

As you can see above, there has been a monumental increase in the freight charges with percentages ranging up to 48.6%. This is a highly abnormal situation that is simply adding disruptions to the already turbulent resin market.

PRICE LISTS

Following are the price lists starting from December 2018 going all the way to July 2021. This era covers almost the entire Covid Pandemic till now and the storms that hit the USA. The price lists reflect the kind of turmoil faced by the resin market and the amount of inflation faced.

Observations about the line graph above

  1. There has been maximum increase in the price of Polypropylene (Marked in Orange) with an increase of 33.901% from December’18 to July’21.
  2. There is a minute decrease in price of Polystyrene (Marked in Grey) with a meagre decrease of 0.45%
  3. Throughout the years Polyethylene continued to maintain the highest price out of all the resins.

CONCLUSION

The global market size of plastic resin was valued at an enormous $711 billion[21] for the year 2020. It is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2% from 2021 to 2028. Increasing product demand from the construction, automotive, electrical and electronics sector is the key factor attributing to the market growth. The rapidly developing global automotive industry is expected to act as a catalyst to this growth of demand through products such as under-the-hood components, exteriors and interiors of automobiles. The increasing usability of resins in the automobile industry is expedited by the demand for lightweight and affordable multi-utility vehicle models with high efficiency for fuel and focus on aesthetics and comfort.

The consumption of resin in the healthcare and Medicare industry is also expected to increase due to the increased production of Person Protective Equipment (PPE) such as face masks and shields, medical gowns and several other medical devices due to the prevailing conditions of COVID-19 across the world. Increasing spending in the construction sector by different countries especially India and China is expected to assist in increasing demand for resin, in 2020, the Asia Pacific region turned out to be one of the fastest-growing construction markets. The prominent countries with respect to significant growth in the construction market are Australia, Indonesia, Japan and China.

PRODUCT INSIGHT

The product segment that accounted for the maximum revenue share in 2020 was the Crystalline resins. With a revenue share of more than 61%, it is expected to maintain its dominance throughout the forecast period. The Polyethylene (PE) resin sub-segment had a prominent share in the crystalline type segment due to their increasing demand from food packaging, stretch wrap, medical applications, etc. The non-crystalline resin segment accounted for approximately 1/5th of the revenue share in the resin market. However, it is expected that the demand for these products will decline over the forecast years due to the increasing utilization of other polymers such as polyamide, polyether ether ketone and liquid crystal polymers.

The engineering plastic segment accounts for a minor share in the market. However, an above-average growth during the forecast period for these plastics is anticipated. The prediction is based on the fact that these plastics have good mechanical and thermal properties, wear and chemical resistance and dimensional stability. The super engineering plastic segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.1% in the upcoming forecast period. This is attributed to wide usage of these products in semiconductor packaging, high-speed connectors packaging and medical applications due to their high electrical and thermal properties.

APPLICATION INSIGHTS

The packaging segment accounted for the highest revenue in the resin market with a share of more than 36% in 2020 and is projected to expand further at a steady CAGR over the forecast period. The growing packaging industry is supported by the increasing demand in packaged foods and beverages. This will boost the segment growth. In addition, various government bodies have incorporated strict guidelines regarding the safe usage of plastic materials in food and beverage applications, which will boost the segment growth.

The automobile industry, as mentioned above, is expected to witness prominent growth in the market over the upcoming years due to the increasing application of plastics in automotive components combined with an increase in the production of passenger cars as well as heavy-duty vehicles, particularly in the Asia Pacific and Central & South America regions. The medical equipment segment is estimated to have a fasted CAGR from 2021 to 2028. Resins are widely used in the manufacturing of medical equipment and devices as they offer better clarity, cost-effectiveness and biocompatibility. Myriad polymers, such as Polyethylene and Polystyrene as mixed to achieve desirable properties for use in the medical equipment industry.

Grand View Research published an article accompanied by the following chart showing the share of all the different industries in the resin market.

REGIONAL INSIGHTS

The country that accounted for the highest revenue share in the resin market is China with a share of 33% in 2020. China is independent regarding plastic production, with an adequate number of plants and production capacity necessary for fulfilling the local demand. Due to its large production base, China exports different types of plastic to its neighboring countries. North America is expected to witness moderate growth over the forecast years. Regulatory policies framed by the FDA, EPA and other agencies are likely to act as a hurdle. However, the impact of this factor is expected to be mitigated by alternative production processes and sustainability through the life cycle of the product.

Europe might have a below-average growth rate over the coming years. Strict environmental policies and regulations by regulatory bodies like European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) and the European Commission shape the market in Europe. Landfill bans have prevailed perennially in many European countries like Denmark, France, Germany and Austria. High landfill tipping fees, dumping tariffs, waste management and closing costs of landfills have encouraged the European population to switch to recycled products. Zero Waste Europe, an organization involved in eliminating waste in society, in collaboration with the European Commission intends to minimize residual waste.

CURRENT POSITION OF MARKET

The resin market is still facing the wrath of the storms that are hitting the USA one by one. However, some petroleum plants are opening in Texas and Louisiana allowing production to resume. Some parts of the production remain shut. The freight charges and shipping costs remain high causing resin producers to spend more and charge more. Moreover, Covid is still prevalent acting as a nonstop barrier. All these factors along with other minor market events are forcing the resin prices to remain inflated. If compared, a 2021 resin price list would look absurd compared to that of 2019.

Despite all the turbulence and inflation, the market is expected to grow considerably in the upcoming decade. Nothing changes the fact that resin will remain an essential product for almost every industry across the globe including Packaging, food and beverages, automobile, medical equipment, holography, bottles, etc. Therefore, one must not underestimate this rather underdog industry which affects all of us in some or the other way.

The research paper is compiled by Abhinav Chattaraj, student of B.A. (Hons) Economics, University of Delhi

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